UNAIDS Warns of 6 Million New HIV Infections, 4 Million Deaths by 2029 Amid Funding Cuts
UNAIDS warns that global funding cuts could cause 6 million new HIV infections by 2029.
Report urges urgent action as donor withdrawal stalls prevention efforts in vulnerable countries.
The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has issued a dire warning that global funding cuts could result in 6 million new HIV infections and 4 million AIDS-related deaths by 2029 if urgent action is not taken to sustain the global HIV response.
This alarming projection is contained in the 2025 UNAIDS Global AIDS Update released on Thursday. The report reveals that the sharp reduction in international support, particularly the unexpected withdrawal of the world’s largest donor earlier in 2025, has already disrupted HIV treatment and prevention services in multiple countries, many of them in low- and middle-income regions.
“UNAIDS modelling shows that if the funding permanently disappears, there could be an additional 6 million HIV infections and 4 million AIDS-related deaths by 2029,” said Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director of UNAIDS.
She emphasized that about 80% of HIV prevention efforts in poorer countries are currently funded by international partners, underscoring the disproportionate reliance on global aid.
The 2025 report paints a sobering picture of stalled progress. While global efforts had previously reduced new HIV infections by 40% and AIDS-related deaths by 56% since 2010, the latest data show that 1.3 million new infections were recorded in 2024, a figure virtually unchanged from the previous year. This stagnation highlights persistent gaps in prevention, treatment access, and health system resilience.
Byanyima also noted a worrying trend in global policy, revealing that the number of countries criminalizing key populations most at risk of HIV, such as sex workers, LGBTQ+ individuals, and people who inject drugs, has risen for the first time since UNAIDS began tracking such data.
“The AIDS response may be in crisis, but we have the power to transform,” she said. “Communities, governments, and the United Nations are rising to the challenge. Now, we must get to work.”
Despite the setbacks, the report presents a path forward. Twenty-five of the 60 low- and middle-income countries surveyed have started boosting domestic HIV funding, signaling a shift toward nationally owned and sustainable responses.
“This is the future of the HIV response: sustainable, inclusive, and multisectoral,” said Byanyima. However, she cautioned that the transition from donor dependency to self-financing cannot happen overnight and called for renewed global solidarity during the transition period.
UNAIDS also projects that with investment in new technologies and streamlined delivery, the annual cost of the global HIV response could drop by US$7 billion, making it more cost-effective over time.
In a promising development, the beginning of 2025 saw increased excitement around lenacapavir, a breakthrough long-acting injectable drug that requires just two doses per year to prevent HIV infection. Lenacapavir leads a new generation of prevention options, including monthly oral tablets and potential once-a-year injections, which could radically simplify HIV prevention.
UNAIDS believes these tools could usher in a prevention revolution but cautioned that success depends on dismantling monopolies, lowering costs, and ensuring equitable global access.
“With an HIV prevention revolution, we could end AIDS as a public health threat, saving millions more lives,” Byanyima said.
The 2025 Global AIDS Update concludes with a strong appeal for collective global action. UNAIDS urges governments, donors, and civil society to safeguard the gains made in the last two decades and push toward the finish line, ending AIDS as a global health crisis.
